Around Baltimore, there have been whispers – but just that – about a so-called promise that the Orioles and their front-office will go out in the offseason following the 2009 or 2010 seasons and add a big bat either via free agency or a trade. The whispers have been primarily centered around two sluggers currently calling the NL home – Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez.
Both players are young with Prince being 25 years old and Adrian being 27. The ages fit that mold for rebuilding that the Orioles have set in place with such players as Adam Jones (24), Nick Markakis (26), Matt Wieters (23), Chris Tillman (21), and many others with huge upside.
Now, just which one should the Orioles acquire given the chance?
Option Number 1: Prince Fielder
Prince is slugging his way to huge numbers in Milwaukee as the Brewers fail to make any noise in their division, making him expendable. Its a shame they can’t loan CC for another three months.
Prince’s current line is as follows:
| Games | ABs | Runs | Hits | Doubles | HRs | RBIs | BBs/K’s | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 132 | 480 | 83 | 144 | 28 | 36 | 119 | 89/111 | .300 | .413 | .592 | 1.004 |
Prince Fielder would lead the Orioles most of these categories, as represented by the bold. As for the ones he wouldn’t lead, he would be in the top three. He would be third in runs, in hits, and doubles as well as second in batting average.
This season for Prince has been one of the better of his career. His batting average of .300 is the highest of his five year career. The previous high was .288 in his short season of 2005 and once again just last year. He has already matched his career high in RBIs with plenty more games to go and has also eclipsed last season’s homerun total with 30 games still left. His OBP and OPS+ numbers are also the highest of his career. He is on pace to do the same in hits, doubles, and runs.
His numbers may even increase while playing his home games at Camden Yards as opposed to Miller Park in Milwaukee. Miller Park’s right field power alley is measured at 374 feet and down the line is 345. Oriole Park at Camden Yards was tailor made for a powerful left-handed hitter like Prince as down the line in right is 318 feet, 27 feet shorter than in Miller and the power alley is also a foot condensed as well.
Look at the splits for the 2009 season. Prince bats .286 at Miller Park with 17 homeruns, a .571 slugging percentage, and a .964 OPS. However, away from home, Prince bats .313 with 19 homeruns, a .610 slugging percentage, and a 1.041 OPS. Obviously, Prince is being held back by the dimensions of Miller Park as his numbers flourish on the road this season.
It would be useful to look at Prince Fielder’s career totals at Camden Yards but it would be even more useful if he had played a game there before.
The production from Prince would be great to have in the Orioles’ line-up. However, that same production would give pain to their wallets.
For starters, if the Orioles wanted Prince after the 2009 season, they would have to make a trade for him as his contract expires after the 2010 season. With his numbers appearing to be entering their peak, his trade value is also higher than ever. The possible trades will be visited later.
However, assume the deal is done and the Orioles has offered players that tickle the fancy of the Brew Crew. The Orioles would probably have to pay the amount due on his contract which is, for the 2010 season, $10.5 million dollars. The contract would be highest on the Orioles team as Brian Roberts is slated to make $10 million and 2009 and Markakis only $7.1 (He may have signed a 6 year, 66 million dollar deal but his salary increases – he doesn’t get $11 million per year. In 2010 he receives $7.1, $10.6 in 2011, $12.35 in 2012, and $15.35 in 2013 with the highest amount coming in his contract year of 2014.).
Of course, that $10.5 to Fielder would be only for the 2010 season and he will want more in the offseason. The Orioles would once again have to reluctantly open their wallets to keep him in Baltimore. You are probably looking at around $12-$15 million a year for him if he just has a normal season. But if his numbers increase in Camden like I suspect, you are looking at more of $15-$17 million at the minimum.
Oh, and icing on a cake that didn’t need any more sweetness – Scott Boras is Prince’s agent. Joy.
Option Number 2: Adrian Gonzalez
With the likes of Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and the previously viewed Prince Fielder playing the same position in the same league, Adrian Gonzalez often gets overshadowed. He gets cheated out of awards that he would win at any other position or if he was in the AL such as Silver Sluggers or even All Star Game consideration. He even gets overshadowed with the fans who are just more asphyxiated with Prince, Albert, or Howard.
His numbers certainly warrant the attention of all fans, more so this season. His numbers are the best in his career even with the season still having life left.
| Games | ABs | Runs | Hits | Doubles | HRs | RBIs | BBs/K’s | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 133 | 458 | 74 | 125 | 23 | 34 | 79 | 102/91 | .273 | .406 | .550 | .956 |
Once again, the stats in bold represent the numbers that he would lead the O’s in if he were on them this season. In hits, he is 4th behind the obvious three of Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones. He would also be third in doubles, second in RBIs, and third in runs.
The line above is by far one of the best of Adrian’s career. His OBP, slugging, and OPS is way higher than it usually is. He is on pace to shatter his previous high in homeruns which is 36. He is averaging one homerun every 13.471 at bat. But, with all the highs in other categories, he is seeing lows in many others. His doubles are down and so are his hits, batting average, and runs.
The struggle of Prince Fielder to hit at home this season was shown earlier in a park that favors pitchers a bit. However, Adrian Gonzalez plays in Petco Park who some may call the ultimate pitchers ball park. Baseball-reference.com has a stat called park factors. In short, a number under 100 favors pitchers while a number over 100 favors hitters. Petco scored a 89 both hitting and pitching which means the park heavily favors pitchers.
Since moving to Petco Park in 2004 from Qualcomm Stadium, Adrian Gonzalez is the only Padres player to have a 30 homerun season.
To see the effect of Petco Park on Adrian, all you need to see is his career splits.
| Games | ABs | Hits | HRs | 2Bs | RBIs | AVG | SLG | OPS | Total Bases | ||
| Home | 336 | 1189 | 306 | 49 | 60 | 168 | .257 | .438 | .788 | 521 | |
| Away | 335 | 1295 | 390 | 82 | 89 | 236 | .302 | .565 | .946 | 731 |
These numbers do include his 59 games he played with the Texas Rangers in 2004 and 2005. However, they are not enough to sway the point being made nor were they during his prime years. He only hit 7 homeruns and batted .229 during that time.
As you can see, Adrian makes the best of his time away from home. His batting average is a half of point better, his homerun totals are nearly doubled, and his run production is miles better. Its amazing, really, that Adrian can be such a dominant player in the league and have some of the best power numbers yet struggle at home.
This season, Adrian is slugging .434 at home this season and currently sits 7th in the MLB in homeruns with 34. You have to go all the way down to 25th on the homerun list this year to find someone else with a home slugging percentage below .500 and that would be Brandon Inge who has 26 homers and a .440 season slugging percentage.
There are also 44 other players in the majors with a slugging percentage higher than .500. Only five out of that 44 have a home slugging percentage lower than .500. Those are as follows:
Matt Kemp – Dodgers – .492 at home/.521 season
Jason Bartlett – Rays – .476 at home/.520 season
Evan Longoria – Rays – .463 at home/.511 season
Hideki Matsui – Yankees – .454 at home/.509 season
Juan Rivera – Angels – .466 at home/.502 season
None of those five other players have a lower homer slugging than Adrian. As a matter of fact, the closest person is Hideki Matsui (oddly enough while playing in the shoe box of the Bronx) and he is still .20 points higher than Adrian. Ironically enough, none of them have a season slugging percentage remotely close to Adrian’s either. The closest is Matt Kemp who is still .29 points behind. Crazy stuff.
Either Adrian is struggling because of the ball park or he just does not enjoy batting in the bottom half on an inning. Something tells me it isn’t the latter.
Adrian may have close to the same numbers as Prince Fielder, yet, he would still demand less money in the offseason. For the 2010 season, Adrian would only make $4.75 million – $5.75 million less than Prince. Also, the Birds would not have to go and sign Adrian right away after the 2010 season. His contract has a $5.5 million dollar club option for 2011. So, the Orioles would be getting Adrian Gonzalez for two seasons at $.25 million less than getting Prince Fielder for just a year.
After that, the price will probably inflate. Think about somewhere close to Mark Teixeira. Both will be playing the same position in the same division. Teixeira is currently making $20 million dollars a year while putting up worse numbers than Adrian despite the large differences in home ball parks.
The O’s would not have to put up with Scott Boras negotiating for Adrian’s agent is John Boggs. All the information I have on him is that he represents Esteban Loiza and Russ Ortiz (http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/John_Boggs). Russ Ortiz is a former Oriole himself.
Option Number 3: Neither
Option number three isn’t as much of an option as it is a possible outcome. Not only is it possible, it is the most plausible and the most depressing.
If you are an Orioles fan reading this, you know how many times there has been empty promises of a big offseason in Birdland. What happened to signing Teixeira last season? That didn’t quite follow through.
How about before the 2006 season. Recall the quote from Peter Angelos …
“We are coming back strong next year. I know you have heard that tune before, but this time it will literally come true “
The Orioles failed to sign Johnny Damon and Paul Konerko, refused to negotiate with AJ Burnett, and only real signing that was made was of Ramon Hernandez. The Orioles finished with 70 wins. I guess 70 wins is strong for a barely 5 foot tall, 80 year old man.
By the way, Benjamin Button anybody?
Give Benjamin Button a baseball team, a couple million dollars, and a few asbestos cases here and there and they are the same person. Except Benjamin Button eventually turns into Brad Pitt and Angelos … well … won’t. Sorry, Pete. Someone had to break it to you.
However, back to seriousness now. The odds are slim that the Orioles actually even try to make a deal for Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. If you recall in the opening paragraph of this piece, I called these rumors “just whispers.” Not only are they just whispers because the national media nor the distant Orioles fans have heard, but also because it probably will never happen.
The Possible Deal
The Orioles would have to gut their farm system in a possible deal. The trade would probably have to involve a young pitcher that the Orioles have ample of. Obviously it won’t be Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz but it very well could be Jake Arrieta or Brad Bergesen. Most teams would be hesitant to get rid of prospect like these but the Orioles have expendable amounts throughout their system. It is really a toss-up right now who would be the one traded.
The deal would also have to include some hitters in the minors such as Brandon Snyder or maybe even future phenom catcher currently in single A ball – Caleb Joseph. Since Matt Wieters looks to be the catcher of the Orioles for a good decade, Caleb Joseph has the short end of the stick. The Carolina League Catcher of the Year could draw some interest from the Padres who are entering rebuilding mode.
Of course the deal would also consist of the some MLB talent most likely in the form of Felix Pie or maybe Luke Scott. Felix Pie should draw a lot of interest this offseason if he continues hitting the way he is.
| The Month of August and September (2009) – Felix Pie | ||||||||||
| Games | ABs | Hits | Runs | 2Bs | HRs | RBIs | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 25 | 71 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 14 | .338 | .392 | .662 | |
In his last 9 games (8 starts), Pie has hit five homeruns, drove in nine runs, hit two doubles, collected a .364 batting average, slugged .879, and has an OPS of 1.300.
Not only that, Pie is not even a month removed from hitting for the cycle against the Los Angeles Angels.
Could it be that Pie found his swing after not living up to expectations with the Cubs? Or could it be just another hot streak. Pie has never had a streak like this in his three year career. If a team wants to think he has found his stroke, let them believe that. Give us Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder and we’ll be happy.
There is also Luke Scott who may have found his power swing. He has 21 homeruns in 106 games this season making his slugging percentage .489. He has the power to reach the B&O Warehouse on the fly (which he came close to doing on the 1st of the month). However, he is a very streaky hitter. Think of a Jayson Werth-type player. If the Brewers or Padres give up Prince or Adrian, they will need a left-handed power bat to fill the void. Luke Scott is the definition of that.
And of course, no trade is completely without the famous “Player to be Named Later,” probably one or two of those.
The odds of this happening at all is around 10%. I am probably just wishfully thinking to myself and blowing smoke up your behinds at the same time. Oh well.
Stats valid as of before games on Thursday, September 3rd, 2009.
The Writing Warehouse 